Since madd started working with state legislators and law enforcement in 2006 with their "Campaign To Eliminate Drunk Driving," they have made tremendous progress keeping drunk drivers off the road. What they've also done is created a soon to be $1.1 Billion a year market for manufacturers of Breath Alcohol Ignition Interlock Devices (BAIIDs) that meet state by state guidelines regulated by NHSTA standards.
The number of BAIID's in use in the U.S. for the year and up to August of 2015 according to The Traffic Injury Research Foundation, USA Inc based on 28 states and 8 companies who provide the device, has shot up to over 325,000 since 2006 or, more than 225%. Estimating the current rate of 'growth in demand' for BAIIDs created by the success rate of MADD's campaign, this market could well more than double within a few short years.
In 2012, Bloomberg estimated this market poised to reach $1.1 Billion annually by 2018-19. Since that estimate and based on Dr. Roth's diligent research of close to a decade and trending data, financially it can be estimated this market has increased in the neighborhood of 100% and shows no signs of slowing down.
The overall goal on a national effort is to have ignition interlocks available in every county, of every state, throughout the nation to meet rapidly increasing court mandated installation demand to "Eliminate Drunk Driving" all together. This would apply nationwide to all offenders including first time offenders with a BAC level of .08 or higher for conviction.
Between 2006 & 2016, the number of states requiring ignition interlocks on all offenders has gone from 1 to 28 with the last 14 states in just the past 3 years. MADD will not stop until all 50 states are on board. For evey state that signs off on the proposed bill, IID market demand can be expected to increase up to 100% or more.
From over a decade of documented BAIID statistics and evidence, we have seen as much as 45% decreases in alcohol/vehicle related deaths and an overall 67% decrease in alcohol/vehicle related offenses. MADD recently reported that BAIIDs have stopped over 12,700,000 drivers with a BAC of .025 or higher from starting their vehicles and driving intoxicated nationwide since the device was created.
Financial savings create even more state incentives and according to the NHTSA, for every dollar spent on a BAIID, states could save up to $7 per taxpayer each year. Fiscal year projected federal interlock grant dollars for all 50 states in 2016 is $17,305,041.04.
There are currently an estimated 1.5 million DUI/DWI arrests in the U.S. each year. Of those and according to the estimated 325,000 BAIID's in use in 2015, that's roughly only 22% of arrests resulting in mandated BAIID use. MADD's goal is for 100% of DUI/DWI arrests to result in mandated BAIID use. Though that number still may be a few years out, at the current growth rate and by 2018-20, roughly 60% of all DUI/DWI arrests could result in mandated BAIID use, countless lives saved, and a huge increase in demand for the device.
2015 Estimated $431 Million IID Market Grows Nearly 410% Over The Last 9 Years
When Mother's Against Drunk Driving (MADD) initiated their "Campaign to Eliminate Drunk Driving" in 2006, there were an estimated 101,000 ignition interlocks in use throughout the nation. This data provided by Roth Interlock was based on 8 out of 9 distributors providing the device for convicted drunk drivers throughout the U.S.
As of June 2014, Dr. Roth's research shows that number has more than tripled to 319,000 according to 12 distributors in 42 states. If true to the trend based on Dr. Roth's decade of trailing data, it can be estimated there were over 359,000 IIDs in use at the end of 2015 and in at least 42 states.
When estimating the revenue value of the consumer market, I used an average monthly charge per IID unit including installation fees in accordance with Dr. Roth's available data. In 2006 using $70 for this average monthly charge paid by consumers, this market was estimated at approx $85 Million. Using $100 for the 2015 monthly charge up through December, the market can be estimated at approx $431 Million. Though estimated revenue generated through monthly charges per unit has increased nearly 410% and devices in use is up over 250% since 2006, providers of IIDs has only increased to approximately 8 manufacturers of the device nationwide.
In 2012 there were 15 states that mandate IIDs for first time offenders convicted of drunk driving with a BAC of .08 or higher, up from 1 state in 2006. Though it took from 2006 to 2012 for 14 additional states to adapt this law, it only took a little over 3 years to nearly double the number bringing the total to 27 states as of May 2016. Estimates at current growth rate show that by 2018-19, all 50 states may enforce some kind of first time offender law requiring first time convicted drivers to install the device if they wish to maintain driving privileges. Estimating monthly average cost to consumer may reach $120 a month per device in use by 2019 and close to 720,000 IID units may be in use in all 50 states by then, market forecasts can be estimated to top out around $1.034 Billion a year by 2019.
Granted I was confidently and easily able to estimate the 2015 market value utilizing Dr. Roth's trending data, doing so for 2016 may not be as simple. Recently Dr. Roth who is known as a top IID data analyst in studying the effectiveness, cost effectiveness, and fairness of ignition interlocks as a sanction for DWI/DUI offenders, has retired from his research. It's been determined he became discouraged due to industry leaders not sharing data and states not collecting the data themselves for public records, forcing him out of this area of study.
Immediately upon retiring from his research, the interlock companies contracted The Traffic Injury Research Foundation USA Inc. (TIRF) to publish the data. Now the state by state data is collected and passed along to the TIRF under the direction of just one competing company in this market and only data from just two thirds of the companies in this sector based on only 28 states is being used to compile data. When compared to Dr. Roth's last report for 2014 consisting of 12 companies in 42 states, it's obvious the TIRF 2015 report is not giving us the full picture of how fast this market is really growing. Though the companies have the right to provide this data as they see fit for legislation purposes, by concealing the number of units in use nationwide, they most definitely do not show the true dollar and growth numbers for this market.